While they still have eight of their 18 regular season fixtures to play in the URC, it already feels like Edinburgh are supping at the last chance saloon when it comes to their hopes of making the play-offs.
They do have the benefit of a five home/three away split in those remaining games, and that has to be the foundation of any late charge to the top eight.
At least 24 points out of 25 must to be the target at the Hive, starting with a bonus point victory against the Scarlets on Friday evening.
A further five points at Rodney Parade versus the Dragons in May would make it 29 points to add to the 18 already on the board for the capital club.
The target to make the post season is likely to be in the range of 48-50 points which would mean the deciding factor could be whether Edinburgh can bring anything home from their two game mini-tour to South Africa in March when they will be hosted by the Lions and Stormers.
In their favour for a late playoff push is a dramatic decrease in their injury list which should see stronger line-ups on the pitch; their solid run of form towards the same stage of last season; and the Hive being a tough venue for opposition teams to visit.
There is no room for manoeuvre though and every game will need to be treated like a knockout fixture, starting with welcoming the 15th placed Scarlets.
- While still sizable, Edinburgh’s injury list has dropped from a peak of 18 names at the turn of the year to 10 ahead of this fixture.
- Even with nine forwards absent, either due to injuries or on Scotland duty, the capital club can still name an all-international starting pack, with Glen Young the only player in that group who hasn’t won a cap in the last 12 months.
- Ben Vellacott (25 in 88 appearances) has scored more tries for the club than the other six starting backs combined (23 in 238 appearances).
- Edinburgh haven’t lost back-to-back home games in the URC since March 2023. They have won seven of their last eight at the Hive or Murrayfield against the Scarlets.
Scarlets: 15 Jac Davies; 14 TOM ROGERS, 13 Macs Page, 12 JOE ROBERTS, 11 Tomi Lewis; 10 Carwyn Leggatt-Jones, 9 Archie Hughes; 1 KEMSLEY MATHIAS, 2 MARNUS VAN DER MERWE, 3 HENRY THOMAS, 4 JAKE BALL, 5 SAM LOUSI, 6 Max Douglas, 7 JOSH MACLEOD (c), 8 Fletcher Anderson
Replacements: 16 Harry Thomas, 17 ALEC HEPBURN, 18 Harri O’Connor, 19 Jac Price, 20 Jarrod Taylor, 21 Dane Blacker, 22 Ioan Jones, 23 Gabe McDonald
** full internationals in caps
- Scarlets have lost centre Johnny Williams and veteran scrum half Gareth Davies from the side that drew away from home versus Benetton in Round 11.
- Current Six Nations’ squad members Tom Rogers and Josh Macleod have been released to play for the Welsh region this week. They are still without seven players who have been held back by Wales’s head coach, Steve Tandy, all of whom featured against Scotland last Saturday.
- Carwyn Leggatt-Jones was also on duty versus a Scottish side a week ago – in his case the under 20s. The 18-year-old stand off made his first ever club start against Benetton four weeks ago and is trusted with a key decision-making role again in this round of matches.
Focal point
It’s possible that if South Africa hadn’t suffered a mini injury crisis among their loosehead props last summer, Boan Venter would have been lining up for Scotland in at least some of this year’s Six Nations.
As it is, the former Cheetahs’ player grabbed his chance to play for the Springboks with both hands and should be part of their selection for The Nations Championship – including a game v Scotland – in a few months’ time.
His performances at Test level will have come as no surprise to Edinburgh fans who have been treated to five years of powerful contributions, whether that was in the number one or number 17 jerseys.
Venter will makes his 100th appearance for Edinburgh in this game, one week after the fifth anniversary of his club debut.
There won’t be too many more outings to add to that tally. With the possibility of Scottish qualified status at an end and the South African provinces keen to snap up Springboks playing overseas, Venter will head home to play for the Lions from next season.
If rumours are to be believed then Alec Hepburn – on the Scarlets’ bench for this game – is being lined up as Venter’s successor.
The Scotland international won’t bring the same level of ferocity to the front row but he would buy them time to bring through a suitable long-term replacement.
As things stand, Jamie Stewart in the academy potentially has a higher ceiling than the other current options, James Whitcombe or Mikey Jones.
Previous meetings
Edinburgh v Scarlets in Scotland during the PRO12/PRO14/URC era
- Eight wins
- One draw
- Three losses
- Five try bonus points
- Two losing bonus points
Most recent encounter in Edinburgh
Officials
Referee: Peter Martin (IRFU, 12th league game) Assistants: Hollie Davidson and Rob McDowell (both SRU) TMO: Colin Stanley (IRFU)
This will be Peter Martin’s sixth URC fixture of the 2025/26 campaign, already matching his combined tally across the previous two seasons with six rounds – plus playoffs - remaining.
Martin certainly seems to be moving up the referee rankings reasonably quickly and he has already become a familiar face for Edinburgh - this will be the third time this season that the Irish official has taken charge of one of the capital club’s games.
In Round 6, when they were at home to Ospreys, the penalty count running in their favour (Edinburgh 9-14 Ospreys) was pretty handy in a tight game that was won 19-17.
When Edinburgh were the visitors in Treviso, the penalties certainly didn’t go their way (Benetton 8-14 Edinburgh) but the Scottish side still managed to nick the win 14-15.
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